What is CMTool?

CMTool is a new climate service to help public health agencies make decisions ahead of heat waves and cold spells in Europe 

What does CMTool do?

CMTool provides multi-lead (three month, one month and one week) probabilistic forecasts of mortality risk ahead of the peak winter and summer seasons

Who can CMTool help?

CMTool can help local public health agencies make more informed decisions weeks to months ahead of extreme climate events 

Decision making process

Ensemble of seasonal forecasts of apparent temperature
Probabilistic prediction of excess mortality
Mortality predictions considered alongside other contextual information
Refine mortality prediction using monthly ensemble forecast and updated contextual information
Implement localised heat/cold health action plans to protect vulnerable sectors of society


CMTool is a climate driven mortality prediction tool, which aims to strengthen public health decision making ahead of extreme temperature events, such as heat waves and cold snaps across Europe.